geopolicity

Publications

• The Cost of the Arab Spring

  
  13-10-2011
  

  Geopolicity

  Over the course of the past ten months, the Arab world has been thrown into the greatest pan-regional turbulence than at any other time since the 1950s. At stake in this regional gamble is the fate of millions of people from north Africa to the Levant, the fortunes of several key ruling dynasties, massive international interests—public as well as private—and a much more critical and profound reshaping of the Arab world psyche; including its relations with Israel. Yet, given the lack of representational political structures across the Arab realm and poor transparency around the re-distribution of national oil wealth, nothing less than meaningful institutional change will provide the tools to chart the challenges of the century. This report - a staff report of Geopolicity - outlines the costs and benefits of the Arab Spring and offers a country based road map to manage the complex political, security and socio-economic transition.

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• The Economics of Piracy

  
  24-04-2011
  

  Geopolicity Inc

  Geopolicity established a global economic model for assessing the costs and benefits of international piracy; adding significantly to the debate on the causes and consequences of piracy. This model provides a comprehensive, independent framework of trend analysis, whilst also highlighting across the ‘Pirate Value Chain’ (PVC) where the greatest rates of return on international counter pirate investment and policy are to be found. The model includes (i) cost-benefit analysis at the individual pirate level, based on existing socioeconomic and market data (ii) the aggregate costs and benefits at the international systems level and (iii) comprehensive data on the resurgence of piracy by functional classification and sovereign jurisdiction; to include trend, comparator and predictive analysis.  Further research, based on aggregating all existing secondary data into a common analytical and diagnostic platform, as well as on the ground research in coastal communities is urgently needed, and would provide, for the first time, a strong understanding of the economics of piracy. 

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• Freedom in Southern Sudan: Priorities for Post-Referendum State Building

  
  31-01-2011
  

  Geopolicity, Inc.

  Few other countries have been through the birth pains that have been epitomized by Southern Sudan. The scars of civilian conflict and bitter internecine fighting will take a generation or more to heal, yet the results of the January 9, 2011 referendum are reflective not only of an abrogated and militarized history, but also of the determination of the peoples of Southern Sudan for the first time to be in the driving seat of their own destiny.  However, the experience of other countries treading a similar path towards independence reveals that the road from war to peace and from dependence to full sovereignty is often as big a challenge as the struggle itself.  This short briefing paper seeks to identify, based on international experience, the major challenges and state building priorities likely to be faced by the Government of Southern Sudan.  The paper outlines core state-building priorities across the triple-transition (political, security and socio-economic) using political economy as the lens of analysis.  Core challenges include securing the integrity of the new state, boundary demarcation, and a plethora of issues resulting from the division of one state into two, such as revenue sharing arrangements, national debt (USD36 billion owed to international creditors) nationality and immigration issues in both the north and south, signature to international treaties including on the Nile, simmering land conflict in the south and overly high expectations bound to be dashed given low delivery capacities. The birth of Southern Sudan comes with a clause; the umbilical cord is still attached! 

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• Iraq WATSAN Scoping Study

  
  01-06-2010
  

  Geopolicity Inc

  This Water and Sanitation (WATSAN) sector scoping study provides a broad assessment of the water and sanitation sector, with a view to outlining the various reform and modernization options essential to improving service delivery over the medium term. Under the current system, WATSAN services are performed entirely by the public sector; a sector that is usually viewed as demanding ethical – quality and quantity – standards.. This not only reflects the distinctive nature of its contribution as a basic and essential public good, but also its contribution to national health and environmental sustainability and, therefore, to growth and prosperity. The study identifies three primary drivers of concern as follows: (i) an imminent risk of severe water resource depletion, (ii) constraints in meeting quality, quantity and equitable access and, (iii) large-scale environmental pollution due to untreated wastewater discharged into both natural and built environments. 

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